I am not a politician, neither am I a professor of Political Science, but recent developments in Nigerian politics cause one to wonder what are our options? What are the possible permutations for 2015? In my own layman/street analyst opinion the followings are quite possible:
1. With the talk of impeachment of GEJ by the opposition APC as a result of OBJ’s damning accusations and the way PDP office holders are “migrating” to APC in droves, the APC might be able to wrest power from PDP and
get GEJ out without an election.
get GEJ out without an election.
2. With APC becoming the new “largest party in Africa” the might be able to garner enough support to dislodge PDP in the elections provided they are not out-rigged.
3. Looking to the history of coup detats in Nigeria, corruption is always cited as the reason for most coups in past. Allegation of corruption at an unprecedented level as made by OBJ would be enough reason for a Khaki boy to snap and truncated our not so nascent democracy before 2015.
4. GEJ may realize the futility of contesting in 2015 thereby choosing an honourable path to become another “Abdusallam” and all his “sins” would be forgiven and forgotten.
5. Agitations on the expiration of the Nigerian contract of 100 years may increase in tempo and secessionists may gain ground and balkanize Nigeria with or without violence.
Before I go further, many of us are quite correct in thinking that we are too important to be ignored by the United States, I stumbled on a White House “Presidential Diary’ titled “ October 1, 2020. It stated “The problem is that some of these are not small, geopolitically insignificant countries. Some-like Nigeria- we in the developed world rely on for needed resources” The diary further stated “because of the encroaching desertification in the North, the religious clash between Muslims and Christians is heating up. Another Biafra-like war –only this time along North-South lines- is not inconceivable?” The point here is that if chaos is more beneficial to the US than the present configuration of Nigeria, believe me they will look the other way until we sort ourselves out or kill ourselves in millions.
I am sure we all still remember that report of 2006 credited to the CIA, (even though the CIA never wrote or made such prediction) that Nigeria would no longer be in existence by 2015, the CIA received no small bashing from Nigerians, who rubbished the prediction then. But recent terrorist events in the country coupled with pure unadulterated corruption and the attendant suffering on the people may lend credence to this prediction, thus raising the pertinent question: Is Nigeria programmed for self-destruct before 2015?
The report, Tagged "famous" document which is a 17-page discussion paper entitled: "Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future" does not represent the view of the S.S Government but it is something to ponder upon. It was released in March 2005 after a one-day conference convened by National Intelligence Council (NIC) two months earlier, where top US experts on Sub-Saharan Africa discussed likely trends in the region over the next 15 years. Nigerian government officials back then even lambasted the US government for "predicting" doom for Nigeria in what was purely scenario painting by individual analysts without the endorsement of the American government.
The report stated: “While currently Nigeria’s leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave; there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja. The most important would be a junior officer coup that could destabilise the country to the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places in a sustained manner. If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West African region. Even state failure in small countries such as Liberia has the effect of destabilising entire neighbourhoods. If millions were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilised. Further, a failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years—if ever—and not without massive international assistance” (page 16, Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future) (I can send you a copy too if you want).
This is the more reason we have to get it right in 2015. A little sacrifice is required on the part of all political players.
NO WINNER CAN TAKE IT ALL IN THIS CASE
GOD BLESS NIGERIA;
By Adekunle Al Muftau Adeite